Object

Title: Wykorzystanie optymalnego sterowania do prognozowania zjawisk gospodarczych

Title in english:

The Use of Optimal Control for Forecasting in the Economy

Creator:

Kaźmierska-Zatoń, Maria M. ; Zatoń, Wojciech

Description:

Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu; 2006; nr 1112, s. 219-227

Abstrakt:

Optimal control problem in the economics leads to the choice of the optimal economic policy from the set of the alternatives. In other words, the problem is to find such policy instruments that enable to realize assumed control objectives with the minimum loss (the difference between the optimal values from the solution and desirable levels). The economic system to be controlled is usually described by the mathematical model (an econometric model in particular). The optimal control model may be used as a tool for forecasting. In this case we forecast values of the exogenous variables (some of them selected as instruments) not endogenous ones (now being control objectives) as in the usual approach. When modelling macroeconomy the instruments may be: tax rate, budget expenses, or central bank interest rate, the objectives: production, consumption, unemployment rate or a level of inflation. In a model for an enterprise we could select wages, products' prices, research and development expenses, marketing expenses (instruments) and sales, profit, return on equity, market share, financial liquidity ratio or a debt ratio (objectives). In the paper we describe the specific use of optimal control for forecasting purposes and show some results based on a small econometric model.

Publisher:

Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Oskara Langego we Wrocławiu

Place of publication:

Wrocław

Date:

2006

Resource Type:

artykuł

Resource Identifier:

oai:dbc.wroc.pl:134169

Language:

pol

Relation:

Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Oskara Langego we Wrocławiu; 2006; nr 1112 ; Prognozowanie w zarządzaniu firmą

Rights:

Wszystkie prawa zastrzeżone (Copyright)

Access Rights:

Dla wszystkich w zakresie dozwolonego użytku

Location:

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

Coverage:

Projekt dofinansowany ze środków budżetu państwa, przyznanych przez Ministra Nauki w ramach Programu Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II.

Objects Similar

×

Citation

Citation style:

This page uses 'cookies'. More information