Title:

Predicting Price Trends in the Wheat Market Using Technical Analysis Indicators

Group publication title:

Ekonometria = Econometrics

Title in english:

Prognozowanie trendów cenowych na rynku pszenicy za pomocą indykatorów analizy technicznej

Creator:

Oktaba, Paweł ; Grzywińska-Rąpca, Małgorzata

Subject and Keywords:

technical analysis ; Parabolic Stop and Reversal ; Relative Strength Index ; wheat prices ; analiza techniczna ; ceny pszenicy

Description:

Econometrics = Ekonometria, 2024, Vol. 28, No. 2, s. 18-31

Abstrakt:

Aim: The aim of the study was to determine the trend of wheat prices using technical analysis indicators. Methodology: Selected technical analysis indicators were used to determine price trends. The parameters of two technical analysis indicators, modified from their default settings, were used to forecast price trends. The Parabolic Stop and Reversal (SAR) indicator, which is a valued trend indicator, was chosen. The second indicator used was the Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillator, which is also popular with proponents of technical analysis. The data source used to forecast wheat price trends was information from the MetaTrader5 trading platform. Results: The research analysis of the applied strategies shows that it is possible to realistically predict price trends on the wheat quotation market. There were two forecasts of the future price movement of wheat based on the indications of the indicators: (1) an indication to go long (in which case the investor should not expect a change in the trend) and (2) an indication to go short (both the SAR indicator and the RSI indicated a possible change in the trend to the downside). Implications and recommendations: Based on the analysis conducted in the article, it was concluded that technical analysis tools are useful in predicting prices in the wheat futures market. The conducted analysis indicated that the application of technical analysis in predicting wheat futures prices is effective. Therefore, technical analysis indicators can be considered by investors as a tool to assist in making investment decisions in various markets, including the agricultural products market, and the use of technical analysis in price forecasting seems to be justified in the context of economic and geopolitical changes. Originality/value: Due to the development of research methods and tools, it can be assumed that today's investors are looking for alternatives that allow them to reduce the time needed to gather and analyse market data. The presented approach to forecasting market prices based on technical analysis indicators showed that it can be used by a wider range of market participants than fundamental analysis, which requires more extensive econometric knowledge.

Publisher:

Publishing House of Wroclaw University of Economics and Business

Place of publication:

Wroclaw

Date:

2024

Resource Type:

artykuł

Resource Identifier:

doi:10.15611/eada.2024.2.02

Language:

eng

Relation:

Econometrics = Ekonometria, 2024, Vol. 28, No. 2

Rights:

Pewne prawa zastrzeżone na rzecz Autorów i Wydawcy

Access Rights:

Dla wszystkich zgodnie z licencją

License:

CC BY-SA 4.0

Location:

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu